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A poll performed by the National Democratic Institute and leaked to the Georgian news media last month suggested that it would fall well short of that, giving Mr. Saakashvili's party 47 percent of the vote and Mr. Ivanishvili's coalition trailing with 10 percent.
According to the chart, nearly every poll performed as it should have, which is to say Obama's current percentage falls within its margin of error.
In a June poll performed by Datafolha, 32% of Brazilians said they had experienced some sort of interruption to their water service in the previous month.
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Polling aggregates are the simplest way get a macro view of how polls performed.
There's not a lot of polling performed in Missouri but the race appears to be very tight.
Furthermore, the FiveThirtyEight estimates of the uncertainty in the polling averages are based partly on earlier years, like in 1980, in which there were few state polls but when the national polls performed poorly.
Newt Gingrich, in second place in South Carolina polls, performed well enough in Monday night's debate in Myrtle Beach, S.C., to set off a double-digit swing in some polls, literally overnight.
When Mr. Obama said that "most millionaires" favor his idea, he was citing polling performed by the Spectrem Group and reported recently in The Wall Street Journal, according to his staff members.
Rick Santorum, in third place in the Florida polls, performed quite well at the debate and could finish toward the top end of his forecast range, which runs up to about 20 percent of the vote.
That does not mean such misses cannot or will not occur: there have only been a few elections when we have had as much state polling data as we do now, which is why the model allows for the possibility of a 1980-type error based on how the national polls performed that year.
Census and opinion polls performed from 1980 to 2007 reveal a constant drop in the number of Catholics (89.2 64%) and an increase of evangelicals (6.6 22%) and the non-religious or atheist (1.6 7%).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com