Exact(4)
This is the average poll advantage that the opposition party has maintained since January.
Though Theresa May has ruled out trying to cash in her poll advantage, McDonnell thinks she might change her mind.
Labour MPs see their opinion poll advantage slipping away, hear the scornful things voters say about their leader on the doorstep and doubt that the tide can be turned.
Conversely, with Sander's consistent double-digit poll advantage hanging over Trump, nothing done by Russian hackers or red-state election officials could have prevented a Sanders landslide in November.
Similar(56)
Depending on the statistical analysis used to convert polling advantage into probability of winning, current polling evidence would seem to give the president somewhere above a 70percentt chance of winning (based on national and state polls) to more than a 90percentt chance (based on the state polls alone).
But his polling advantage over his main challenger, Stockwell Day of the conservative Canadian Alliance, has eroded, to around 20percentt in several polls.
Close races in Florida and Ohio also offer chances.Mr Obama's recent polling advantage in all these places, if it endures, is likely to boost Democratic candidates further down the ticket.
In early September, when Mr Bush's approval rating was 50%, almost as many people disapproved of his handling of the economy as approved of it and Democrats had a four-point polling advantage over Republicans.
Mr Obama now has a 17-point polling advantage over Mr Romney in the under-30 set, a comfortable but rather less impressive number than his margin over the creaking Mr McCain.
But if the Leave side fails to hold its current polling advantage and loses on 23 June, perhaps the absence of any real sense of the UK's place in the world outside Europe will prove a fatal shortcoming.
While national security is a portfolio that has often favored the G.O.P. in recent elections, the killing of Osama bin Laden and the Obama administration's assassination program in Pakistan using drone-fired missiles may help explain the president's consistent polling advantage on the issue.
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