We don't consider a 25-50 basis point tightening to be a big tightening".
"But what is really striking is that the Russians seem to be at this point tightening the screws and trying to get D.C.'s attention in the nastiest possible way".
Donald J. Fine, chief market analyst at Chase Asset Management, is among those who say that many market participants expect a half-point tightening at the May 16 meeting of the Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee, as economic growth led by strong consumer spending continues.
I discount that pussyfooting, 25-basis-point tightening back in June.
A 50-basis-point tightening in the spread implies a 4.75% increase in the value of the bonds.
One measure from Credit Suisse implies 180 basis points of tightening over the next 12 months, taking the cash rate to 5.25percentt.
The threat of a mere 50 basis points of tightening is enough to twist the yield curve out of shape.
"The Federal Reserve's 50-basis-point tightening was a bit of a watershed," said Timothy M. Ghriskey, senior portfolio manager for the Dreyfus Corporation, referring to a May 16 increase of half a percentage point in the overnight lending rate.
The research also pointed to tightening water supplies, particularly in the Southwest and California, he said.
