Instrumental variables estimates indicate that following a negative income shock of one percentage point, democracy scores improve by around 4 5 percentage points on average.
Syracuse has won by 20 points, on average.
The Mercury also gives up the most points on average, 89.2.
Therefore, the polls were biased in Mr. Romney's direction by nearly five percentage points, on average.
This season, they held opponents' under that number, at 59.1 points on average.
Over all, Dean Jamieson found that Mr. Gore had gained 10 percentage points on average in those states.
They are the highest-scoring games involving teams playing since the 1970 merger (49.6 points on average).
ICM's polls suggest that "no" leads by 13 points on average in the northern Highlands and Islands.
Ohio's historic rightward lean has been slight — about two percentage points, on average, since 1948 — but consistent.
But for female candidates, the polls underestimate their eventual vote share by over 2 percentage points, on average.
And the shifts have been smaller still, 3.7 percentage points on average, in the five elections since 1992.
