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"The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots.
We need a much more deliberate Plan Z, with detailed scenarios of plausible climate shocks; close analyses of options for emergency response by governments, corporations and nongovernmental groups; and clear specifics about what resources — financial, technological and organizational — we will need to cope with different types of crises.
"The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots," Dr Aled Jones, the Director of the Global Sustainability Institute at Anglia Ruskin University, said at the time.
The inverse approach expands the applicability of the scenario-neutral approach in evaluating a water resource system's sensitivity to a wider range of plausible climate change scenarios.
An average period of six months (ending in May) was used for the SPI, corresponding to the agricultural growing season of the region, to assess drought conditions under five plausible climate scenarios.
Moreover, clear research needs are also recognized at the local scale where process knowledge needs to be improved (e.g., the influence of albedo on snow and ice or debris cover on glaciers) in order to derive plausible climate change impacts assessments.
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Thus, it seems plausible that climate change indicators based on the average characteristics of the climate niche within communities would be related to habitat characteristics.
"We know that warmer and wetter conditions facilitate the transmission of mosquito-borne diseases so it's plausible that climate conditions have added the spread of Zika," said Dr Diarmid Campbeleadendrum, a lead scientist on climate change at WHO. "Infectious agents in water will proliferate with more flooding.
The analysis begins with an assessment of the vulnerability of the alternative designs under a wide domain of systematically-generated plausible future climates and utilizes downscaled climate projections ex post to inform likelihoods within a risk-based evaluation.
"So from basic physical understanding of weather systems it is entirely plausible that climate change has exacerbated what has been a period of very wet and stormy weather arising from natural variability," she said.
Two future climates are considered; an average estimate case considered to be the best estimate of ground surface temperatures during the last glacial interglacial cycle, and a cold estimate case considered to be an extreme cold, but plausible future climate.
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