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Recent studies have noted myriad qualitative and quantitative inconsistencies between the medieval Black Death (and subsequent "plagues") and modern empirical Y. pestis plague data, most of which is derived from the Indian and Chinese plague outbreaks of A.D. 1900±15 years.
The sylvatic plague data are from monitoring of the Pre-Balkhash plague focus of southeastern Kazakhstan (748-788°E and 448-478°N) 19448-478°N
To estimate the duration of the latent period and the infectious period, and the probability of transmission of primary pneumonic plague, data describing cases and transmission events were sought from well-documented outbreaks.
Hence, the data underestimate the sylvatic plague abundance (P) but are unbiasedly proportional to the following: (2) P t = ∑ (B v, t E v, t − 1 Q v, t − 1 ∑ (O q, v, t A q C q,v, t ) ) The human plague data (H) are hospital records from Almaty, the former capital of Kazakhstan, where plague cases have been recorded annually since 1904.
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