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Due to the fact that recorded precipitation time series are usually shorter than the length needed for a proper calibration of ANN models, synthetic monthly precipitation data are generated by Thomas-Fiering model to further improve the performance of forecasting.
Additionally, limited data availability and inhomogeneous distribution of GNSS stations could also impact the performance of forecasting.
Besides, embedding techniques have shown potential in handling categorical inputs, which can enhance the overall performance of forecasting.
The performance of forecasting accuracy of the WNN model is relatively high compared to the traditional approach.
"Comparison of predicted VTEC maps" section shows that the performance of forecasting ionospheric VTEC maps was limited during geomagnetic storms on DOY 77, 174, and 355 in 2015.
However, it should be noted that the performance of forecasting depends on the season.
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A total of 91 models were submitted; these are currently under the CSEP official suite of tests for evaluating the performance of forecasts.
To investigate the performance of forecasts during periods of different levels of solar activity, the SH coefficients from final ionospheric products are collected for forecasting VTEC maps in 2009 and 2015.
The likelihood test is not the only tool to evaluate the performance of forecast models, but various methods are applied or prepared in the CSEP testing centers (e.g., Schorlemmer et al., 2010; Zechar et al., 2010b).
I would point out that it is hard enough coming up with an Electoral College count prediction (or maybe not, given the run of polling for Obama in the last few days), let alone trying to guess the loss function with which others will "grade" the performance of forecasts.
Using forecast and observed weather data to assess performance of forecast products in identifying heat waves and estimating heat wave effects on mortality.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com