Exact(4)
The variability in the age-at-onset for our study flocks (figure 2d) suggests that any seasonality in transmission will be lost and, hence, the seasonality in cases, and, in particular, the coincidence of peak cases and lambing, may reflect other mechanisms.
Figures 2 and 3 show the incidence curves for a set of countries in the early and late peak cases, respectively.
The percentages are calculated as the relative reductions of the maximum of the 95% reference range, where the interval refers to the early and late peak cases (minimum and maximum of the intervals, respectively).
In the following, we will refer to the early and late peak cases as the earliest and latest date, respectively, of the reference range for the activity peak time (see Table 1).
Similar(56)
The probability distribution of each hour for the peak case is listed in Table 3.
Although we define the late peak case, it is important to stress that also in this case, we are in the presence of an activity peak occurring much earlier than the usual timing of seasonal influenza.
Further, these variations are likely to produce differences in outcome of an epidemic, including attack rate (infected and symptomatic individuals as a proportion of total population), peak epidemic day, and peak case incidence (number of cases by day).
Epidemic simulations using a large-scale agent-based model explored whether and how the variations might affect outcomes as measured by attack rate, peak pandemic day, and peak case incidence.
If we consider the early peak case, this would amount to a considerable reduction when compared with the approximately null benefit of the vaccination alone under the same conditions.
Finally, we modify our algorithm's example generation and scoring function for the isotopic distribution and matched isotopic pairs to improve our results with the 'machine' selected peak case.
Most data were available for adult iNTS disease, which reveals a drop from a peak case fatality rate of 47% observed in 2000, to 11% in 2010 (Table 1).
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