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Employer payroll tax holiday on payroll growth.
In February it indicated payroll growth of 329,000.
Moreover, Mr. Yamarone notes that there is little anecdotal evidence supporting strong payroll growth.
Job creation has been slowing since 1997, when annual payroll growth peaked at 2.5percentt.
Unfortunately, America has still had only one month of payroll growth since the onset of recession.
Its healthy job market is also reflected in its payroll growth numbers.
The memo said: "Since unemployment cannot begin to fall until payroll growth hits about one percent — and payroll growth will not hit one percent until [gross domestic product] growth hits at least 2.5percentto3percentcent — we may not see any substantive payroll growth until late 2010 or 2011, and unemployment could rise until that time".
"Payroll growth may have a temporary wobble," said Ian Shepherdson, chief United States economist at High Frequency Economics.
The year after the end of the 1982 recession, payroll growth averaged 257,000 jobs per month.
While payroll growth picked up in July, employment prospects for Americans have dimmed compared with earlier in the year.
Lee's research shows that the creation of small businesses indeed causes substantial employment and payroll growth in cities.
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