Tuesday, NWSCPH, which is based in Honolulu, has taken over forecast responsibility for Iselle and Julio from the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
'It can't keep not happening,' Halpert said, because otherwise they're over-forecasting.
The number of switches of the under- and over-forecast cases is also too high compared with the perfect-forecast case, as shown in Fig. 17.
As shown in subplots 2 and 3, Fig. 15, in the over-forecast or under-forecast cases, the PEESS has multiple overshoots or undershoots from ( P_{f}^{text{Baseline}} ) in hour 13.
Open image in new window Fig. 16 Impact of different forecasting accuracies of the feeder baseline load on room temperature profiles 2) As shown in subplots 2 and 3, Fig. 15, in the over-forecast or under-forecast cases, the PEESS has multiple overshoots or undershoots from ( P_{f}^{text{Baseline}} ) in hour 13.
In the other two cases, the ( P_{f}^{text{Baseline}} ) is calculated by adding or subtracting 5% random forecast errors from the perfect-forecast ( P_{f}^{text{Baseline}} ) to represent the over-forecast and the under-forecast cases, as shown in Fig. 14.
Conversely, over-forecasting can result in excess stocks that expire before use.
As shown in the figure, the forecasts gradually depart further away from the observations over longer forecast length, i.e. ε increases with t.
"They're way over forecast," Steiner said.
While there is more limited downside, we continue to retain concerns over forecast delivery, particularly with respect to gross margin.
