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New-schoolers attribute the outcome of close games to randomness as much as anything.
Eastern time, Senator Jean Carnahan of Missouri sealed the Democrats' fate, conceding to supporters that she had lost to Representative Jim Talent, thus making it impossible for Democrats to retain control, whatever the outcome of close contests in Minnesota and South Dakota.
Given this dramatic increase in campaign spending by those with the most intimate knowledge of campaigns, and with the most at stake in the outcomes, it's probably safe to conclude that this spending must work — that it can determine the outcome of close contests.
"Without any intervention by anyone working at Google, it means that Google's algorithm has been determining the outcome of close elections around the world".
And even then, take the underlying vote estimates with big grains of salt….as tools to predict the outcome of close races just before the polls close, they are blunt instruments at best.
Low turnout poses an obvious problem in that it affects the outcome of close elections, but its true impact is far greater and longer lasting due to an often overlooked mainstay of modern politics: polls of "likely voters".
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"Researchers should be cautious in attributing correlations in health outcomes of close friends to social network effects," the authors say.
We use regression discontinuity and the outcomes of close elections to identify causal effects for 2000, 2004 and 2008.
"Researchers should be cautious in attributing correlations in health outcomes of close friends in social network effects," wrote Ethan Cofen-Cole of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston and Jason M. Fletcher of Yale University in an accompanying study.
Conclusions Researchers should be cautious in attributing correlations in health outcomes of close friends to social network effects, especially when environmental confounders are not adequately controlled for in the analysis.
Or, put another way, enough votes to change the outcome of a close referendum.
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CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com