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Moreover, their method counts on a disease having symptoms severe enough to send someone to the emergency room, making it harder to detect small outbreaks of less serious ailments.
The performance evaluation process also excluded very small outbreaks of less than 5 cases, and although this could affect algorithm comparison results, this would be limited to events of lesser public health importance.
However, recent increases in STIs and outbreaks of less common STIs such as syphilis amongst gay men in several UK locations [ 2, 3] and elsewhere in Europe [ 4] raise concerns over complacency about safe sex among gay men.
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When additionally targeting the vaccination on the most frequently named contacts, an immunization coverage of only 4% yields a median outbreak of less than 1,600 cases; a vaccination coverage of 6% can further reduce the median to less than 1,300 cases with a worst case scenario of under 1,700 cases.
Secondly, that integration of the region's military forces into NATO, along with EU membership, would make local outbreaks of violence less likely.
For the highly optimistic goal of having a median outbreak size of less than 1,000 cases, we have to ask 10% of the population to supply the names of their contacts.
If we are willing to vaccinate 10% of the population, it suffices to ask a random sample of 4% of the population for their contacts in order to obtain a median outbreak size of less than 2,000 cases.
Following the near complete eradication of polio, non-polio enteroviruses have become responsible for large outbreaks of HFMD and less frequently, severe and often fatal neurological complications.
However, due to the high degree of vigilance, institutional outbreaks were recognized early and rapidly brought under control with the majority of these outbreaks having an attack rate of less than 10%.
(And all the moaning about parenthood, I will admit, clangs a mighty chord with me; the outbreaks of hostility towards Gypsies less so).
These health systems cannot keep up with diseases like HIV and malaria, much less outbreaks of fast-moving viruses like Ebola.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com