Exact(3)
To compare network outbreak timing, we generate the noise parameters of a state space time series model using the expectationmaximization (EM) algorithm implementation provided by Shumway and Stoffer (4).
The high level of biosecurity at European poultry farms, the broad spatial distribution of the outbreak locations, and the outbreak timing which coincided with temperature drops in the Black Sea region [18] have been used to suggest that infected wild birds carried virus hundreds of kilometers to the locations where the mortalities were documented [19], [20].
Using this scheme, we compare surveillance networks based on outbreak intensity (i.e., which networks detect the highest percentage of cases) and outbreak timing (i.e., which networks detect cases temporally in sync with the true start, peak and end of the disease season).
Similar(57)
It also helped to monitor the cluster and outbreak over time and to estimate the number and timing of future cases.
In all three states different definitions identified outbreaks that varied in their timing of outbreak onset by as much as seven or eight months, with the majority of outbreaks still varying by as much as four months (Fig. 5).
We extend this work by evaluating different surveillance placement algorithms with respect to outbreak intensity and timing (i.e., being able to capture the start, peak and end of the influenza season).
Climatic, environmental, and ecologic factors such as the creation of larval mosquito habitat by above-normal amounts of rainfall are well-known antecedent events for African outbreaks, but the timing and interaction of these variables in the United States are unknown.
The time series graphs used to identify RRv disease outbreaks also displayed the approximate timing of any outbreaks that were documented in the Communicable Diseases Intelligence quarterly and annual surveillance reports [ 16], or were identified in a review of RRv in Australia [ 13].
During historical El Niño events (interannual time scale), the timing of malaria outbreaks does not change from the annual cycle, but the number of cases intensifies.
But for farmers in the Salinas Valley of California, already reeling from last month's deadly E. coli outbreak in spinach, the timing could not have been worse.
Another potential explanation for the lack of correspondence between the timing of outbreak events affecting whooper swans and their periods of exposure to poultry is that they did not succumb to disease immediately after infection.
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