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The public health system worked well in containing the deliberate spread of anthrax but is inadequately prepared for a larger outbreak, state and local health department officials said at the close of a meeting here today.
Formally, we will use the variable x to represent the outbreak state.
For simplicity we have restricted the model to a first order HMM where the unobserved disease process is represented by one of two states: an endemic (non-outbreak) state, and an epidemic (outbreak) state.
The prior mean for the outbreak state was also equal to the maximum daily case count of the baseline dataset.
Early in the Spring outbreak, state and local health departments followed CDC guidance that districts "consider adopting school dismissal".
The following results present the performance of the 7, 14 and 28-day HMMs using the outbreak state prior means of 2, 2, and 3 respectively.
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These methods can also be extended to additional space dimensions as well as time, and multiple cluster classes (outbreak states).
Gamma priors on the means for the baseline and outbreak states were selected to describe a small probability of more extreme state mean values, however other distributions could be used.
Due to the sparse nature of the baseline dataset, the prior means for the baseline and outbreak states were approximately 5 and 10 times greater than the baseline mean respectively.
Given the outbreaks, state health officials are urging families to check vaccination records and get up to date before summer camps and gatherings begin.
Applications of the HMM require prior means to be specified for the outbreak and non-outbreak states of the HMM.
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