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During the initial outbreak starting in December, the disease was detected mainly in wild flocks in the Pacific Flyaway, a bird migration path from Alaska to Patagonia.
He said he feared a "double-barreled flu season," with many cases of swine flu in the fall and early winter, and then a seasonal outbreak starting later and peaking in February as it usually does.
This cluster arose at two separate time periods, with the first outbreak starting in the fall of 1995, peaking in 1996 and disappearing by the spring of 1999, with a second outbreak rapidly appearing in the fall of 2001, peaking in the summer of 2002, and disappearing in the spring of 2003.
In addition, we also made three-day forecasts for selected periods during the outbreak, starting from day 4 of the outbreak.
As elsewhere, routine outpatient data for Bufundi Health Centre suggested the occurrence of a malaria outbreak starting in early June and peaking in early July of 2006.
The outbreak start week was then chosen based on the Sunday of the week a majority of the physicians identified as the outbreak starting date.
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Chapman's outbreak started on Feb. 21.
How the outbreak started is not known, Dr. Hayes said.
It is thought the outbreak started as early as 8 August.
Nigeria's outbreak started when Patrick Sawyer, a Liberian-American, flew into Lagos on 20 July.
For instance, Syria was polio-free for 14 years until an outbreak started in 2013.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com