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Using mathematical models and data on cholera cases collected over 18 years at a hospital in Dhaka, Bangladesh, the researchers analyzed the role of climate and previous levels of the disease on outbreak patterns.
All explored surveillance networks correspond to different reported outbreak patterns.
These differences creates differences in predictions of outbreak patterns larger than 40% in terms of cumulative cases.
Thus, Eq. 1 can be used as a test of hypotheses where hypotheses are about all candidate outbreak sources responsible for the observed outbreak patterns.
Additional file 1 report more information about the outbreak considered, and Figure 3 shows the observed outbreak patterns and transmission networks.
Accuracy in systems diagnosis increases when system syndromic signs are the most informative in a way they reveal linkages between outbreak patterns and network transmission processes.
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In 1999, he was one of the first physicians in the U.S. to recognize the outbreak pattern of the West Nile virus when it began infecting patients in Queens.
Thus, such uncertainty affects the ability to reproduce correctly the observed outbreak pattern and to detect the correct outbreak source.
(A) River networks and cumulated outbreak pattern of cholera in 2010 in the Cameroon Far North region.
The set of observer nodes for which the VoI is the maximum allows to predict the real outbreak source and the observed outbreak pattern.
Because of the spatio-temporal anisotropy of outbreaks the small-world network is the surveillance network with the highest value of information, that implies the most accurate outbreak source detection and outbreak pattern prediction.
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