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To create individual clusters, the user can vary a number of relevant outbreak parameters (Table 1).
Priors for outbreak parameters are vague but informative, e.g., a 95% interval for infectiousness is 4 to 11 days.
The simulation modelling approach also permits the use of sensitivity analyses to explore the influence of uncertainty in estimated outbreak parameters and other data characteristics on algorithm detection performance.
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As these periods corresponded to a period of heightened public awareness due to severe influenza outbreaks, parameter estimation was repeated without these data points.
For single-phase outbreaks, parameter estimates (a, r, t i, K) will converge as the trajectory approaches carrying capacity K, as demonstrated in the Taiwan and Hong Kong SARS outbreaks (7, 9 ).
Figure 2 shows the estimated generation time distribution for the four different outbreaks; the parameter estimates are detailed in Table 1.
Note, however, that the speed of ring vaccination (household tracing delay) and faster diagnosis due to awareness of the outbreak are important parameters.
It is unfeasible to test all birds within a barn on a daily basis; therefore optimal sampling strategies need to be considered to detect evidence of a LPAI outbreak and infer parameters of epidemiological interest.
Text mining; event detection; semantic scan Development of general methodology for optimal decisions during disease outbreaks that incorporate uncertainty in both parameters governing the outbreak and the current outbreak state in terms of the number of current infected, immune and susceptible individuals.
The different curves correspond to different outbreak sizes or parameter values.
These performance indicators can then be averaged based on many simulations and compared for outbreaks of various sizes (by adjusting the susceptibility or contact parameters) for outbreaks with different degrees of clustering (by adjusting buffer settings) and for different levels or sources of endemic disease data.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com