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New data will lead to new methods and tools, and transdisciplinarity in the use of those methods and tools will allow for new interpretation of the complex dynamics of infectious disease detection, epidemiology and outbreak mitigation.
To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.
We briefly describe key findings of the outbreak investigation and lessons learned from our outbreak mitigation experience.
The epidemiologic investigation and review of outbreak mitigation efforts uncovered gaps in planning for and containing the outbreak, thus affording valuable lessons applicable to other countries in similar settings.
Preparedness planning for avian influenza should account for the unique challenges associated with a simultaneous multifocal outbreak, including personnel recruitment and allocation; coordination of all parties involved in outbreak mitigation and investigation; simultaneous culling and disposal in multiple sites; and coordinated central and local risk communication efforts.
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Prompt space-time analyses are critical elements for accurate outbreak detection and mitigation purposes.
Delayed vaccination occurring after the onset of the outbreak and other mitigation strategies such as holidays/breaks and interventions to reduce infectious contact rates can augment the effectiveness of traditional pre-season vaccination activities for the prevention and control of influenza in these settings.
Substantial differences were observed in the predicted magnitude of outbreaks both by mitigation strategy and by ecoregion: depending on the ecoregion, the creation of a targeted depopulation buffer could reduce the number of deer predicted infected by up to 52%, and the area affected by up to 31%.
Bajardi et al. recently developed a similar large-scale geographic disease spread model, with which they showed that a vaccination campaign following the initial outbreak may require additional mitigation strategies to delay the epidemic [44].
There is an urgent need to investigate such relationships which can help prediction of future outbreak and evaluation of mitigation strategies.
Given also its good performance in the mitigation of outbreaks, it thus represents an interesting alternative strategy.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com