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Researchers working for the Pakistani government developed an early epidemic detection system for their region that looked for telltale signs of a serious outbreak in data gathered by government employees searching for dengue larvae and confirmed cases reported from hospitals.
Data from sea lions stranded in southern California showed a general trend of lower seroprevalence than was found in central and northern California, and, intriguingly, there is no evidence of the 2004 outbreak in data from the southern range.
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Fourth, we marked the public health emergencies and injected simulated outbreaks in data sequences.
First, we studied the performance of three commonly used statistical detection algorithms against detecting simulated outbreaks and previously "known" outbreaks detected in data from the District of Columbia's (DC) Department of Health's Emergency Room Syndromic Surveillance System (ERSSS) [ 13].
The early phase of an outbreak, in which data is relatively scarce, presents scientific challenges on key issues such as: scale, severity and immunity which are fundamental for establishing sound and rapid policy schemes.
We restricted our analyses to the 39 (83%) outbreaks in which data about antimicrobial susceptibility were available.
Kosmider et al. [ 8] used a Poisson regression model that accounted for seasonality and previous outbreaks to look for new outbreaks in DNR data.
The absence of known outbreaks in the data set makes it difficult to assess the sensitivity and specificity of the early detection method, as the false detection rate cannot be calculated.
Performance comparisons were based on two main indicators: sensitivity, which describes the ability of the algorithm to detect outbreaks in the data at any time during each outbreak period; and timeliness, which describes the number of days from the beginning of each outbreak until the first signal for each outbreak.
The 90 outbreaks included in our study, with a geometric mean of 13.5 confirmed cases, were larger than outbreaks in the data sets of all reported outbreaks between 1982 and 2004 in the included countries, such as Scotland (4.1) and United States (5.5).
Previously, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE) revealed close genetic relatedness between a S. Typhi strain that was isolated from an asymptomatic carrier in 2007 and a strain that originated from a patient during the 2005 outbreak in Kelantan (unpublished data).
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com