In population dynamics, variation in realised fecundity is important because increased fecundity is one way by which herbivorous insects escape density dependent regulation and attain outbreak densities [28], [29].
The leaf beetle Phratora vulgatissima frequently reach outbreak densities in natural willow stands [33] [35], as well as in willow plantations used for biomass production, where they are considered pests [36] [38].
In all neocolonized regions where the moth is present, C. ohridella maintains permanent outbreak densities, causing severe aesthetic damage to the horse-chestnut, a highly valued ornamental and amenity tree (Freise and Heitland 2004).
By limiting our analysis to areas contiguous with known dengue-endemic areas and smoothing outbreak alerts into an outbreak-density surface, we were able to identify a reliable signal of dengue spread.
This modeled outbreak probability density surface represents a risk map of recent DENV spread into areas of previously unknown dengue endemicity according to the 2010 Yellow Book.
Of the 19 new dengue-endemic areas reported in the 2012 Yellow Book, this threshold identified 14 (74%) as being at elevated risk of endemicity, according to the dengue outbreak probability density estimated by our model.
Four years after the 2005 2006 outbreak, wolf densities had recovered above pre-outbreak levels, and signs suggest a similar outcome following the 2010 outbreak.
To obtain a stronger and more generalized estimate of transmissibility across all of the outbreaks, probability density functions (e.g., Poisson, geometric), were fitted to these data by maximizing the log-likelihood function for the probability and frequency of individual transmission events aggregated across the datasets.
This design enabled us to compare the parental effects on offspring expression of phase-related traits between two naturally-occurring, genetically distinct populations of Locusta migratoria that differed in their historical patterns of high population density outbreak events.
