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He has run out of predictions, challenges and face-reddening tantrums.
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Relevant to the above discussion were the repeatability tests carried out on predictions of the particle paths.
Therefore, all predictions are true out-of-sample predictions.
Figure 8 shows the cross-validatory predictions (2010-11) and out-of-sample predictions (2012-14) for the combined forecast aggregating over sub-region models.
Figure 5 shows observations and predictions for 2010-11, as well as out-of-sample predictions through to December 2014, under the deterministic trend option.
A parsimonious time series model is sought (Ledolter and Abraham 1981), combining close fit with low predictive variability, especially for cross-validatory and out-of-sample predictions.
Moreover, the lack of overlap ensures that on-site comparisons rely on out-of-sample predictions, too.
Figure 8 Entire Arctic combined forest (mn km 2 ), cross-validation period (2010-11) actual vs fitted, and out-of-sample predictions to end 2014.
Figure 7 Greenland Sea (mn km 2 ), cross-validation period (2010-11) actual vs fitted, and out-of-sample predictions to end 2014.
Figure 5 Central Arctic (mn km 2 ), cross-validation period (2010-11) actual vs fitted, and out-of-sample predictions to end 2014.
The accuracy of a given model (correlation of out-of-sample predictions with measured responses) was computed as the accuracy averaged over the 20 different data sets.
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