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Predicted differences in the form of more optimistic probability estimates turned out to be supported for class composition (e.g., discipline) but not for country (U.S. vs. rest-of-world).
Once again, though this is a correct interpretation in the training set, it may result in overly optimistic probability estimates when applied genome-wide.
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Laplace estimate compensates for the node size, thus preventing overly optimistic probabilities at very small nodes.
Also, because some of the therapeutic interventions were not identical within a specific class, and other studies were different with respect to their trial design, we advise the reader to carefully evaluate the most appropriate priors to avoid overt pessimistic or optimistic current probabilities.
The Society is pessimistic about possibility of interplanetary travel within the next few years & will admit only that it has "an optimistic attitude regarding probability of (space flight) in this century".
The defense was not optimistic about the probability of success.
When using both the non-informative and the optimistic prior the probability of achieving a clinically meaningful difference is greater than our pre-set threshold of 75%.
The estimator restricted to the subset of patients who survived (restricted analysis) gives an overly-optimistic picture of the probability of being discharged, and as noted previously the practical use of this estimator is highly questionable.
Also under the assumption of independent drug effects, Havaleshko et al. [ 11] suggested combining the probabilities as P A P B where P A and P B are the probabilities of being resistant towards two drugs: A and B. However, as noted by the authors, the resulting probabilities are optimistic.
The Brexiters might then adopt a level with, say, a 30% probability of exceedance (optimistic), whereas the remainers might adopt 60% (cautious).
The estimated probability is also optimistic, since we used a low-end estimate of the fraction of travellers who knew their exposure history: if more travellers were aware of their exposure, our estimate for the proportion who reported correctly would have been lower.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com