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"only one scenario" is correct and usable in written English
You can use it when you are referring to a possible situation or course of action that is the only one of its kind. For example, "We can only envision one scenario in which our organization will be successful."
Exact(36)
Actually, this method produces only one scenario based on trends and impacts analysis.
Only one scenario project each reported on cardio-vascular diseases [ 73] and infectious diseases [ 75].
In the second scenario, the resources required to provide ART were contrasted against the overall public resources available if a UC health system were implemented, noting that only one scenario is presented here which is simply based on the resource requirements to improve the quality of public sector services and increase access to and utilization of these services.
"Logically there is only one scenario," he said, though he conceded that he had no evidence.
This is only one scenario.
Only one scenario (1% step disturbance in Area 1) is considered.
Similar(23)
Majority of the scenarios have only one bot (scenario 1 8 and 13), whereas scenarios 9 12 have multiple bots in them.
One shortcoming of the Copenhagen Consensus Center Report is that it only considers one scenario in which we take modest steps to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, and uses only one integrated assessment model.
In its current form, the ACE tool, with only one patient scenario, search strategy and article, does not necessarily permit repeated use on the same cohort.
There is really only one plausible scenario in which Republicans could enact some version of Paul Ryan's radical, government-shrinking budget plan during the next two years.
By Steve Coll September 5, 2012 There is really only one plausible scenario in which Republicans could enact some version of Paul Ryan's radical, government-shrinking budget plan during the next two years.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com