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Separate curves are shown for the lossatthe end of the one year forecast window and the average loss over the whole year.
Fig. 7. Percentage loss of precursory information as a function of target magnitude for a one year forecast window due to non-inclusion in the forecast of earthquakes occurring during the year.
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The Cbv model, based on a spatially constant b-value, was better than the Vbv model, based on regionally variable b-values for short-term (one year) forecasts.
Comparing the results of retrospective forecasts by the three models, we found that MGR was almost always better than Vbv; Cbv was better than Vbv for short-term (one year) forecasts; little difference between MGR and Cbv for short-term forecasts; and MGR and Vbv tended to be better than Cbv for long-term (three years or longer) forecasts.
(The Bank's record is even worse at the one-year forecast horizon).
It is clear therefore that the EEPAS model can be entered for CSEP testing in the one-year forecast class with hardly any loss of information due to the exclusion of precursory earthquakes.
The EEPAS and PPE models have been submitted to the Japan Testing Center for testing in the Japan mainland region in the three-months and one-year forecast classes.
Using the 40 largest housing Metropolitan Statistical Areas that the HOI ranks, we then factored in Moody's Economy.com's one-year forecast for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, a measure of sales prices in major markets, to find out where home prices were expected to rise.
"One-year forecasts of the market are practically meaningless," Mr. Aliaga-Díaz says.
When EEPAS is applied with a one-year forecasting window, there is a potential loss of information because earthquakes that occur during the forecasting window cannot contribute to the forecast.
The result is seen in Fig. 7, which shows the estimated instantaneous loss of informationatthe end of a one-year forecasting interval as well as the average loss over the whole year to which the forecast applies.
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Since I tried Ludwig back in 2017, I have been constantly using it in both editing and translation. Ever since, I suggest it to my translators at ProSciEditing.

Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com