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Upper and lower bounds on the exceedance probability of any constant level are calculated.
The damage is defined based on the exceedance of the concrete wall shaft capacity due to the developed seismic forces.
The sub-hourly 15-min time step SWAT model was developed and integrated with different levels of GI to study their impact on the exceedance of critical shear stress and potential stream bank erosion.
The advantage of the two-stage Bayesian model is that it provides the uncertainty bound on the exceedance probability which gives a measure of the factors unaccounted for in the capacity estimation process.
In temperate and Mediterranean climates, rainfall is the most common triggering factor, therefore landslide early warning systems at regional scale are generally based on the exceedance of statistical rainfall thresholds (Guzzetti et al. 2007; Guzzetti et al. 2008; Tiranti and Rabuffetti 2010; Cannon et al. 2011; Segoni et al. 2015a; Cucchi et al. 2015).
Considering the complexity of fault rupture and the short fault distances involved, a simple and robust early warning algorithm, based on the exceedance of specified threshold time domain amplitude levels (band-pass-filtered accelerations and the cumulative absolute velocity), is implemented.
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In a simplified approach, the design wind load can be specified based on an appropriate small target value of the exceedance probability.
The structure of the process vector is the same as that of the exceedances process on pp.111-112 in Leadbetter et al. [1] where the authors presented a detailed and visualized introduction.
Depending on the degree and distribution of the exceedances throughout the country, further risk mitigation might be needed on a local, regional, or national scale.
The area at risk due to the exceedance of critical loads of eutrophication and the average accumulated exceedance in EU27 in 2000 and 2020 under the baseline scenario relying on national reports, i.e. representing current legislation, were estimated to amount for 74% and 61%, respectively.
The confidence intervals on the percentage exceedance only account for issues associated with the sampling and the eventuality of outliers.
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