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In addition to the above, we also collected information on arrival dates of individuals in BB, and information relating to basic needs that were used to guide the MSF programme response, but which we do not present here.
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Patterns of selection on arrival date were less consistent than body size.
Patterns of selection on arrival date were more variable than body size.
Except for the 2003 males, linear selection on arrival date was weaker than that on body size (Table 3).
Further research might investigate the direct and indirect effects of flight performance and condition on arrival date, using path analysis models.
Interestingly, the difference in RS between hatchery and naturally spawned fish was smallest in 2005, when selection on arrival date was weakest.
To test for effects of short-term flight performance, body condition, tail length and age on arrival date, I fitted linear mixed effects models with maximum likelihood estimation.
The effects of individual predictor variables on arrival date in simple linear mixed effects models with sex, year and colony (to account for differences among the two breeding colonies) as additional predictors were first investigated.
Although the positive quadratic gradient for the 2003 males suggested disruptive selection on arrival date, the cubic splines indicated that the relationship was more linear than quadratic (Fig. 4A).
The match between the lifetime pattern of arrival dates and the pattern of territory improvement (vegetation and occupancy) indicates that the improvement may be based on earlier arrival.
The pattern observed for arrival date on the one hand and annual survival on the other suggests that barn swallows can make use of their flight abilities to survive the long journey and to arrive early from Africa.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com