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The total estimate of loss of suitable habitat varied between 54% (GlobCover 0% omission threshold) and 68% (SarVision 0% omission threshold) (Figure 7).
Subsequent analyses were done for all scenarios, but the maps shown were based on a conservative approach (10% omission threshold).
The relative proportion of already degraded habitat (e.g. arable land, plantations, mosaic vegetation) was similar for all omission threshold scenarios (0%, 10 %, 20 %, 30 % and 40hresholds) between the three land cover maps (Table 5).
We used a Visual Basic routine developed by N. Barve (University of Kansas) to calculate AUC ratios, performing 1000 iterations with the omission threshold set at five percent [36].
A soft omission threshold was used so that 20% of models with the lowest omission error were retained; those models with intermediate levels of commission were then chosen from this subset.
The best subsets procedure was implemented to select optimal models for B. anthracis using an extrinsic omission measure and the selection of 20 models under a hard omission threshold of 10% and a commission threshold of 50%.
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The proportion under total protection decreased with the higher omission thresholds in all three land cover maps (Figure 10).
In the threshold-dependent binomial test of omission a threshold of 0.10 was used to classify each vector as either present or absent in each cell, with a vector present in a given cell if the niche model assigned it a value greater than 0.10 in that cell and absent otherwise.
Subsequently, the average predictions for current and past conditions of the logistic output of the 100 models were computed and transformed into presence/absence maps applying the average minimum training presence and average 10% training omission as thresholds.
The accuracy of each model was then determined by performing both a threshold-dependent binomial test of omission and a threshold-independent receiver operating characteristic analysis with those cells set aside during model development [11].
If neither context representation crossed threshold an omission was scored.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com