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Ensemble forecasting entails the production of many forecasts in order to reflect the uncertainty in the initial state of the atmosphere (due to errors in the observations and insufficient sampling).
In a 1965 paper [ 14], Lorenz suggested that, instead of running one forecast from a best guess of the initial state, one should run an ensemble of many forecasts, each from a statistically equivalent estimate of the initial state, to give a Monte Carlo estimate of the forecast uncertainty for a given weather model.
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This time, of course, many forecasts will go well beyond the next decade.
Over 2011, the economy grew at a rate of 1.7percentt, a dismal result after many forecasts of robust growth made at the beginning of the year.
The government forecasts growth of 2.8% this year; many forecasts by private economists are lower.The lag is already eroding the popularity that Lula depends upon to push through reforms.
He has aroused enormous expectations, and will struggle to meet them.Still, in finally reaching the presidency, Lula has defied many forecasts of failure: many pundits argued that a former metalworker, lacking secondary schooling let alone a university degree, was unelectable in a basically conservative country.
But it is too late for that now, with a budget deficit of an extraordinary 11-12% of GDP popping up in many forecasts for next year.
But corporate results have surpassed many forecasts.
Silver's website was one of many that forecast a likely win for Hillary Clinton in the last presidential election (though by a smaller margin than most), and the conference explored how polling has been further refined since then.
Over the years, many forecasting techniques of varying capabilities have been introduced.
Estimates of the geomagnetic indices made with real-time solar wind measurements form the basis of many space weather forecast techniques.
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