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Some critics of forecasting say this is a dangerous trend.
From time to time, accounts of forecasting failures appear.
The hazards of forecasting even one month ahead have now been illustrated.
But in the business of forecasting terrorist threats, he said, even that would be valuable.
In the world of forecasting, the upturn has been just around the corner for months.
Accounting entries overstated performance in polymer additives and undermined the reliability of forecasting, Ferro said.
By refining his analysis over decades, Tetlock has compiled a list of forecasting commandments.
"Trying to encourage early, frank, honest reporting both of forecasting boulders in the road and opportunity.
His is basically a job of forecasting what people will buy.
Quite aside from its practical value, the advent of forecasting indicated that meteorology had finally matured.
Other monthly editors are also wrestling with the difficulty of forecasting events and moods.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com