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"We're at 13percentt ahead of forecast".
Superficially these data suggest a degree of forecast success.
However, a more targeted inflation successfully reduced the number of forecast degradations without significantly reducing the number of forecast improvements.
Specifically, we examine two key assumptions, the independence of forecast errors across time and the failure of forecast errors to spillover industrial boundaries.
The benefits of forecast verification are seeping into decision makers' processes as well.
All of which amounts to roughly 40 percent of forecast gross domestic product for 2011.
Its solution is a new product called MarketFirst, a sort of forecast of the forecast.
Optimists argue that, on the basis of forecast profits, shares look cheap by historical standards.
"It's hard to argue strongly against this type of forecast," she said.
In normal times, that kind of forecast would hardly be comforting.
Possibilities for rationalising systems or enhancing benefits by sharing of forecast products and data are discussed.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com