Fig. 4 Beef export losses.
In aggregate modeling, shrinking export markets would mean losses of export revenues and factor income, hitting vested interests of beneficiaries from the palm oil industry.
Actionable subsidies are not prohibited automatically, but they can be challenged if the complaining country shows that the subsidy caused material injury — a loss of jobs, profit or production capacity — or "adverse effects" to its industry, like a loss of export market share or sales.
"But in all possible scenarios, our simulation exercises show a substantial loss of export trade".
Basically, the shock was a loss of export demand from Asia and a drying up of capital inflows.
The woes of the euro zone were, in large part, caused by southern Europe's loss of export competitiveness.
The European Union predicts that on top of the direct loss of export business for steel makers, something that affects relatively few European countries, there will be a painful indirect effect as cheap steel diverted from America floods Europe instead.
According to Mr. Kotelko and others, the timing of the mad cow outbreak has also helped cushion the loss of export markets, at least for now.
The test is France, which is shy of change despite rising unemployment, an oversized state and a loss of export competitiveness.
If the short-term loss of export income exacerbates worries about Indonesia's current account, the consequences could be worse still.
