Think of a game of Wheel of Fortune, where each card that's turned over narrows the set of possible answers, except that here the answer could be anything: a common English phrase, a Polish surname, or just a set of license plate numbers.
To create a baseline for comparison, we used a technique called "propensity score matching" to generate a series of matches between each of Fortune's most admired firms and a set of similar firms drawn from the Fortune 500.
A bank's loan portfolio is such a collection, yet the accord makes the serious mistake of assuming that these individual pieces move independently of each other.The fortunes of companies are tied together to varying degrees by aggregate and international factors such as interest rates, the overall level of economic activity, and exchange rates.
In an HBR article in January 2005, Cappelli and Hamori compared leaders in the top 10 roles at each of the Fortune 100 companies in 1980 with those in 2001.
"Even though he is giving away a piece of his fortune each year, the stock of Berkshire Hathaway, the source of Warren Buffet's wealth, has been rising very rapidly," Steve Forbes, the chief executive of Forbes, said, noting Mr. Buffett's fortune climbed $10 billion in the last calendar year.
In "The New Road to the Top" (HBR January 2005), two of us (Cappelli and Hamori) compared leaders in the top 10 roles at each of the Fortune 100 companies in 1980 with those in 2001, noting a sharp decline in the "lifer" model and a corresponding uptick in rapidly advancing young executives who spent less time with any one employer.
A former I.G.T. executive who asked not to be identified said that each "Wheel of Fortune" machine generates an average daily win of at least $300.
You may recall that after a long run of spectacular good fortune, each hit a wall — or, in Tiger's case, a fire hydrant and a tree.
Such a shock alone merits the label of a reverse of fortune.
Hearts were contrastingly menacing and, even if they enjoyed a piece of good fortune with each of their goals, it could not be said to have been unwarranted.
