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A difference map for each land cover class, representing the difference between 1976 and 2001 probability of occurrence values, was built.
Species probability of occurrence values derived from the climate niche models (in step two) were used to represent spatially explicit estimates of species establishment probabilities (SEPs) under current and future climate within the landscape simulation model.
For each tree species, the probability of occurrence values predicted by the NPMR models were spatially averaged for each ecoregion and directly utilized as species establishment probabilities (SEP) values in LANDIS-II.
To determine the area of climatically favorable niche space for a species, we used the probability of occurrence values generated by the NPMR climate niche models, averaged across each forested ecoregion used in LANDIS-II.
Although parameters such as growth, cover, and even richness or diversity reached similar values to the ones in the model areas after 4 years (i.e. natural perennial mountain pastures), other indicators such as composition, measured in a qualitative way as the ratio of colonizing species to total species, showed different occurrence values for the most abundant species.
The best model for the CON metric, which predicted occurrence at higher values (> 96.26), had the stronger effect of the two variables but the PCF metric was only modestly weaker; PCF resulted in the best model when predicted occurrence values were above 28.0%.
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We set the rarefaction occurrence value at 75 because that occurrence value provided a large number of data points while at the same time eliminating points that were based on suspect, spotty data.
The maximum occurrence value was close to 40, which is less than 10% of the runs.
When two or more quadrants predicted occurrence at a single point, we used the higher probability of occurrence value in our composite species distribution.
Statistical independence of two variables probabilistically means that the occurrence (value) of one variable does not change the probability for that (value) of the other.
Thus the observed number of occurrence(s) for each motif was always greater than the expected species-specific occurrence value, denoting that sufficiently stringent criteria were employed to identify putative transcription factor binding sites.
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