Therefore, the rainfall event in 2006 may have been the trigger for low-level RVFV circulation, but with no observable epidemic.
An observable seasonal epidemic start date of t0 was defined as the start of the first week of the epidemic year with at least five confirmed RSV cases.
If both diseased and recovered/removed individuals are observable, then the epidemic sensitivity becomes high with an extended observation period, since individuals that are infected and recover or removed prior to recording are also observed.
It is clearly observable, that the epidemic broke out in the Geneva region, which is the westernmost part of Switzerland.
When examining sensitivity to parameter choices, it is important to consider which basic observables of the epidemic should be maintained while the parameters are varied.
For instance, when the epidemic is seeded in a small, isolated village, no clear pattern of diffusion is observable (especially for S models) since the epidemic is more likely to spread towards far, large cities than towards close, small size municipalities (see Figure 1, third row).
One of the observable measures of the advance of an influenza epidemic used in public heath forecasting is the number newly infected cases per day, as estimated by the reported number of daily diagnosed cases.
If there are observable spatial differences in the course of an influenza epidemic, these differences can be tried to be reproduced.
However, if recovered individuals are not observable, i.e. they are healthy and no longer show any symptoms or clinical signs, then the epidemic sensitivity remains low and heritabilities remain underestimated.
Second, obesity is easily observable.
