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Forecasting (explorative) vs. backcasting (normative) scenarios.
Normative scenarios answer the question: How can a target, which we here name "primary target", be reached?
This paper aims to explore how to assess future scenarios, categorised according to Börjeson et al. (Futures 38 723 739, 2006) i.e. predictive, explorative and normative scenarios.
One suggested categorization is [8]: Quantitative vs qualitative Exploratory vs normative Predictive vs open Reliance on creativity vs reliance on evidence, and Forecasting (explorative) vs. backcasting (normative) scenarios.
Based on Börjeson et al.'s typology [10], we consider three types of scenarios: predictive, (forecasts and what-if scenarios), explorative (external and strategic scenarios), and normative scenarios (preserving or transformative (e.g. backcasting)) answering the respective questions: What will happen?
Ideally assessments of normative scenarios (backcasting) should be done in an iterative way so adjustments can be made to scenarios if backcasting goals are not fulfilled in a first assessment and if additional sustainability issues are identified and could be addressed [12, 36].
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The 2011 White Paper on Transport, as published by the European Commission; that is a sort of normative scenario, aiming at a sharp reduction of transport-related CO2 emission for 2050.
In the discussion, we consider the advantages and disadvantages of this survey tool and conclude that it is an effective way to support the development of normative landscape scenarios in participatory planning processes.
To facilitate the development of normative landscape scenarios, the output of a land-use decision model was visualized in 3D, establishing a relationship between policy influence factors (as model drivers) and the 3D visualizations.
Therefore, we used normative landscape scenario method to develop two scenarios.
The content of a normative transition scenario, developed in participatory workshops by water practitioners in Melbourne, is then presented, focusing on the transition to a "water sensitive city".
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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