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Each treasury worries about the mounting long-term cost of loan non-repayment and subsidised interest rates.
He said what was lost through non-repayment was "small" when compared with the extra tax revenue from graduate earnings.
The 30 per cent non-repayment figure is based on optimistic assumptions of fee-level and the rate of growth".
The business department select committee says it is now acknowledged by the government that the rate of non-repayment of loans will reach 45%, and that may rise.
"All the evidence suggests that the new loans will have a greater rate of non-repayment than the pre-2010 variety.
Birmingham said the non-repayment of student debt had cost the economy $800m since the loan scheme was introduced in 1989.
By linking likeliness to repay to tuition fee levels, the Australian system minimises the probability of non-repayment of the loan.
His report claims the postgraduate loan non-repayment rate would be only 7%, much lower than the 40-45% of undergraduate loans which go unpaid.
The principal reason for the projected increase in non-repayment is that graduate income has not grown as anticipated by the Office for Budget Responsibility.
The business department select committee says the government now acknowledges that the rate of non-repayment of loans will reach 45%, and that may rise.
As part of a complex accounting process, the Scottish government annually writes off about 30% of each year's student borrowing to cover expected non-repayment of debt and its subsidy of a low interest rate.
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