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From Figure 3A we learn that using instrumental variables that rely on the previous settlement argument could be misleading in the case of new sending countries.
This illustrates the fact that the A8 countries are new sending countries, and as such there were almost no established enclaves in 2001 (the only exception is the London borough of Ealing which had a large Polish concentration).
Therefore, we can conclude from this analysis that the use of previous settlement arguments as a means of defining instrumental variables is likely to not be valid for the period 2001 2011 and also that it may work better when the enclaves from the new sending countries already formed.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com