The war may be inevitable, even if Álvaro Uribe Vélez, the hard-line Presidential candidate, who is running far ahead of his rivals, fails to win the elections later this month, even if the United States Congress fails to approve new disbursements of military aid, even if the guerrillas, who have survived for forty years, quickly disintegrate, Taliban-like, under the impact of a first air strike.
An agreement will not immediately unlock new money since disbursements will require parliamentary approval in creditor countries such as Germany.
One remaining hurdle to disbursement of new aid is the International Monetary Fund's condition that it would withhold its portion of the next installment, of 12 billion euros, for Greece's first bailout program until European ministers pledge to make good any gaps in Greece's public finances during the next 12 months.
Although some eurozone member states including Germany, which is facing regional elections on May 9 still have to ratify the unpopular disbursement, a new consensus has emerged among authorities and opposition that the main issue is not Greece per se but the gathering contagion to the rest of the eurozone.
So if our partners in the institutions say, 'No liquidity for you, no disbursements, no new contract,' then of course this is unsustainable, as it would be with any country that is in a kind of IMF program, a Troika program or ECB program".
Rather, I am advocating for an approach that uses targeting to areas with high unemployment and poverty as a guiding principle in the design and disbursement of any new programs, tax cuts or emergency assistance.
The next disbursement was due in February.
Any shortfalls would be docked from the next disbursement.
Washington has announced that it is accelerating the disbursement of $1.6 billion in new assistance to Afghanistan in an effort to produce visible improvements in stability and governance by early summer.
Loan tranches are scheduled for quarterly disbursements through March 15 , 2011 and a new flare-up of political turbulence could delay or halt future loan disbursements.
