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Most importantly, very few HIV infections (0.65) would needed to be averted for the HIV services to break-even and become cost saving, because the long term cost consequences of new HIV infections are substantial.
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The results of threshold analysis indicate that 364 STIs would need to be averted for the STI services to break-even and become cost saving in a YFHC.
178 unwanted pregnancies (100% of abortions and 19.2% of deliveries) would need to be averted in a year for the early pregnancy and contraceptive services to break-even in a YFHC.
In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of a two-thirds reduction in child mortality by 2015, three million child deaths per year will need to be averted in sub-Saharan Africa.
If the benefits are assumed to start applying at age 18 years and are discounted at 5% back to age 10 years (the age of many children in the program) to be consistent with costs, a slightly higher number and proportion of cases (19 or 1.9%) would need to be averted.
It is for this reason that our research did not specify a probability of high-risk behaviour being reduced, but rather resorted to the use of threshold analysis which specified the number of cases needing to be averted for the BBBS-M program to break even.
Only 0.65 new HIV infections would be need to be averted in a year for the HIV services to break-even in a YFHC.
A decade after a government-commissioned report recommended that 210,000 homes needed to be built each year to avert a housing crisis, the Home Builders Federation HBFF) said a "lost decade" meant the shortage was now equal to the number of homes in Birmingham.
England, despite dominating, were given another scare just before half-time when Johnson played Ramirez onside and Hart needed to be off his line quickly to avert the danger.
But change is urgently needed if hard times are to be averted.
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