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Only 0.65 new HIV infections would be need to be averted in a year for the HIV services to break-even in a YFHC.
The results of threshold analysis indicate that 364 STIs would need to be averted for the STI services to break-even and become cost saving in a YFHC.
178 unwanted pregnancies (100% of abortions and 19.2% of deliveries) would need to be averted in a year for the early pregnancy and contraceptive services to break-even in a YFHC.
In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of a two-thirds reduction in child mortality by 2015, three million child deaths per year will need to be averted in sub-Saharan Africa.
If the benefits are assumed to start applying at age 18 years and are discounted at 5% back to age 10 years (the age of many children in the program) to be consistent with costs, a slightly higher number and proportion of cases (19 or 1.9%) would need to be averted.
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Most importantly, very few HIV infections (0.65) would needed to be averted for the HIV services to break-even and become cost saving, because the long term cost consequences of new HIV infections are substantial.
It is for this reason that our research did not specify a probability of high-risk behaviour being reduced, but rather resorted to the use of threshold analysis which specified the number of cases needing to be averted for the BBBS-M program to break even.
Want climate change to be averted?
But change is urgently needed if hard times are to be averted.
Panic had to be averted.
At CD4 counts in the range 250 – 349 cells/μl and 350 – 499 cells/μl, 66 and 113 persons, respectively, need to be treated to avert one death.
More suggestions(16)
need to be minimized
need to be prevented
need to be saved
need to be stopped
need to be resolved
need to be tackled
need to be avoided
need to be negated
need to be counteracted
need to be distracted
needs to be averted
need to be discouraged
need to be countered
need to be relieved
need to be circumvented
need to be resisted
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com