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James M. Gdula, the project manager, said Ikea has signed contracts or is near contract with 70percentt of the property owners.
The only exception is observed for potato futures, for which the volatility of daily returns for the 2-month (next near) contract is greater than that for the 1-month (near) contract.
For other commodity futures (potato, crude oil, and mentha oil) this assumption is not confirmed.4 For crude oil and mentha oil, the volatility of daily returns is greater for the 3-month (far) contract, followed by the 1-month (near) contract and the 2-months (next near) contract.
For potato futures, there is a decreasing trend in volatility for near, next near, and far month contracts, with near contract exhibiting the least declining trend in volatility, and far month contract showing the maximum declining trend in volatility.
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The ARCH-LM statistic is not statistically significant for all types of potato contracts and mentha oil near contracts.
This result holds for the 3-month (far) mentha oil contracts and potato near and next near contracts, as reported in Table 5.
The figure shows that it is not necessary to have an inverse relationship between the price of the nearest contract and the term structure.
But when a significant drop in the price of the nearest contract occurs, the term structure increases (i.e. in contango).
Figure 3 compares the evolution of future 1M (the nearest contracts) to the term structure observed from CME WTI crude oil, defined as the difference of future 13M and future 1M (to avoid seasonality).
Seeks investment results designed to track the price of light sweet crude oil, measured by 12 futures contracts consisting of the near month contract to expire and the contracts for the next 11 months.
Fig. 1 Trends based on rolling standard deviation for 1 (Near) month contract Fig. 2 Trends based on rolling standard deviation for 2 (next near) month contract Fig. 3 Trends based on rolling standard deviation for 3 (far) month contract.
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