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But because the orbit of Earth is elliptical, it moves faster than average near perihelion (near January) and slower than average near aphelion (near July).
The reversal starts from near January in the case of A. The bold-faced period includes the precursory period (Oct., Nov., and Dec). of the phase reversal.
In the Northern Hemisphere, the GAIA DE3 amplitude reaches maxima near January and is stronger than that from SABER.
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Fig. 1 Trends based on rolling standard deviation for 1 (Near) month contract Fig. 2 Trends based on rolling standard deviation for 2 (next near) month contract Fig. 3 Trends based on rolling standard deviation for 3 (far) month contract.
Moreover, the β term is greater for the near month contract cycles for gold futures, which confirms the validity of the Samuelson hypothesis.
The graph for the next near month contract of menthe oil shows volatility clustering although the Jarque-Bera value suggests that the residuals are not normally distributed.
The volatility trends in crude oil and mentha oil futures highlight the significance of the available information as the far month volatility is higher than the near month volatility.
For crude oil and mentha oil futures, the near month volatility trend of daily returns is almost constant, and the magnitude of rolling standard deviation (volatility trend) is the highest for the far month contract.
Regarding the article "Anger and disillusion rise as Iraq's election nears" (Jan.
Near-month crude-oil futures edged lower on the New York Mercantile Exchange amid concerns about high OPEC production.
The price of oil as of last Friday, on the nearest month future, was selling at $101 a barrel.
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