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For all projections, 95% credibility intervals (CrI) were generated from the multivariate uncertainty sampling.
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To do this, we performed a multivariate uncertainty analysis by running the model with 1000 randomly sampled parameter values from the uncertainty distributions for the antiviral treatment SVR and the efficacy of OST and HCNSP on reducing HCV transmission risk (Table 1).
This was followed by a multivariate uncertainty analysis in which the simulation was repeated 10 000 times by Monte Carlo sampling from the uncertainty ranges around each parameter in the table and across the risk factor distributions listed in the appendix, generating 95% confidence intervals around the model's results.
This multivariate uncertainty method is an extension of classical uncertainty methods used for scalar variables and tracks the correlation between all variates along with the sample variance instead of just tracking the standard uncertainty.
This paper presents a model building strategy that consider the multivariate uncertainty as weighting matrix for the principal components.
Additionally, probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the multivariate uncertainty in the model, i.e., input parameters were varied simultaneously over specified ranges.
Then, to understand how uncertainty on parameters would affect uncertainty on the results obtained for each strategy described in table 3, we performed multivariate uncertainty and sensitivity analyses including all parameters except those defining each strategy (detection and cure rates).
Multivariate uncertainty and one-way sensitivity analyses were performed.
Then we conducted multivariate uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to determine the uncertainty in the performance measure that was due to the uncertainty in estimating the input parameters.
Sensitivity analysis and multivariate uncertainty analysis are performed, conform current Dutch standards for pharmaco-economic research [ 23].
Multivariate uncertainty analyses were conducted with respect to the key structural parameters and viral load level per HIV stage.
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