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Our use of multiple climate model scenarios provides uncertainty of the calculations of future energy demand.
Using multiple climate model simulations, we show that anomalous seasonal insolation over the Northern Hemisphere due to a long cycle of orbital parameters results in a modulation of the Asian summer monsoon transition between the MWP and LIA.
These large-scale features of the Asian summer monsoon during the MWP are consistent among multiple climate model simulations (Shi et al., 2016a) with nonnegligible inter-model spread in regional rainfall patterns (Shi et al., 2016b).
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Knutti, R. et al. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models.
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. & Meehl, G. A. Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models.
Tebaldi, C. & Sansó, B. Joint projections of temperature and precipitation change from multiple climate models: A hierarchical Bayesian approach.
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. & Meehl, G. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models.
Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. & Meehl, G. A. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models.
These simulations, of course, depend on the accuracy of the models, so in general it's best to run them on multiple climate models, which can take time.
Mankin and his colleagues, who include fellow Columbia postdoc Deepti Singh and researchers from the University of Zurich, the University of Twente in the Netherlands, and Stanford, examined a total of 421 mountain drainage basins on four continents and considered how their conditions might change over the next century, based on multiple climate models.
This study reveals that the slow variation in orbital parameters from the MWP to the LIA results in an inverse response of the Asian monsoon between early and late summer, as shown by simulations of the last millennium using multiple climate models and sensitivity experiments by an atmosphere ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM).
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