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In fact, when it comes to economic theory's track record, there isn't much predictive success to speak of at all.
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The best social-scientific accounts of adjudication, for example, boast predictive success that is so feeble (better than coin-tosses, but not much!) that their explanatory models, with their implicit concepts of law, earn no epistemic credence.
These mood swings may not have much predictive value when it comes to Presidential years.
In his view, what matters is "narrow predictive success" (Hausman 2008a), not overall predictive adequacy.
In this case, predictive success might have to yield to other forms of scientific knowledge.
Assume that the cognitive scheme endorses predictive success as an important goal of science.
The GTLCI model predictive success rate of 80% was explained by the limited number of boreholes available for validation.
Similar predictive success with films has been found elsewhere on the Internet.
But they weren't; there were no big further predictive successes, and in fact the extremely costly disinflation of the 1980s, which was more or less what modified Keynesianism predicted, was very much at odds with the freshwater view of the world.
Conceptual difficulties have plagued quantum mechanics since its inception, despite its extraordinary predictive successes.
Other countries have had much less success.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com