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This might seem obvious, but it's infuriatingly absent from much forecasting.
The author rightly complains that too much forecasting, not just in economics, is short-termist, looking a year or two ahead at most.
Similar(55)
The atmospheric measurements would not allow for much weather forecasting on their own, but they could supplement data from other sources to make forecasts more precise, Ms. Miglarese said.
Intelligence analysts spend too much time forecasting economic trends or broad political shifts, basing their conclusions on information freely available to think-tanks and academics.
But anyway, that was really the logical conclusion of the forecast I had back then that inflation was unwinding, and that was obviously a pretty much unique forecast.
In other words, your colors are not so much trend forecasts as emotional solutions.
Employment conditions are improving somewhat, but often not as much as forecast.
The report did not say by how much the forecast had been cut.
Like Pergau, it will also provide some electricity, though not, of course, as much as forecast.
The IMF based its bail-out on much rosier forecasts.International aid has done little more than buy Ukraine time.
Silver's political-forecasting work has shown that good statistical analysis of quantitative data can provide much better forecasts than can human intuition.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
CEO of Professional Science Editing for Scientists @ prosciediting.com