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Silver's political-forecasting work has shown that good statistical analysis of quantitative data can provide much better forecasts than can human intuition.
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And while Pittsburgh's home prices may only inch up 2% in the next three years, that's a much better forecast than the national average for cities on our list a drop of 1%.
The experiment results clearly show that for these two particular datasets, the proposed method achieves much better forecast performance than the basic back propagation neural network and ARIMA model.
The monthly ZEW index jumped to 52.8, much better than forecasts of 49.6.
The upbeat news that the fourth-quarter gross domestic product rose 0.2percentt, much better than forecasts of a 1percentt decline, arrived before the Fed ended a two-day policy meeting.
"I'd say I'm as pragmatic as possible and not locked into one position," he says, "but I do understand that I have a much better record forecasting rain than in predicting the return of sunshine".
We're also much better at forecasting these events long in advance, up to about a week, because decades of investment in weather research and improved technological systems have given us better, higher resolution models".
This was prompted by stronger than expected US GDP growth on Thursday and much better than forecast non-farm payroll numbers yesterday - 204,000 jobs were created last month in comparison to predictions of a 120,000 increase.
Unfortunately, ecologists can't do much better at forecasting when an ecosystem is about to collapse or change dramatically.
The leading portal posted earnings of 11 cents per diluted share excluding one-time charges, much better than official forecasts of 8 cents per share and even better than whisper numbers of about 10 cents per share.
Yahoo!, the leading portal, posted earnings of 11 cents per diluted share excluding one-time charges, much better than official forecasts of 8 cents per share and even better than whisper numbers of about 10 cents per share.
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Justyna Jupowicz-Kozak
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