Weather-conditioned moving average (WCMA) is the common approach adopted for the weather prediction.
Hypothesis 2. Moving average monthly pollutant concentrations and weather characteristics for the period of analysis (2 June to 30 October 2008) are shown in Table 3. Study subjects' gestational month mean PM2.5 concentrations were highly correlated with both their SO2 (r = 0.86) and CO mean concentrations (r = 0.71), but slightly negatively correlated with NO2 concentrations (r = –0.25) (Table 4).
Our prediction model called autoregressive weather-conditioned moving average (AR-WCMA) has its foundation on WCMA which is a low overhead solar energy prediction algorithm.
Such moving average models have been commonly used in weather and air pollution epidemiology [ 4, 10, 22].
For analyzing delayed effects of weather factors, long- and short-lag effects were defined by a moving average of the current and previous week (0 1 week average), and of the current week through 3 weeks prior (0 3 week average).
When considered singly in Poisson regression models controlling for seasonal variations and weather conditions, the nonaccidental mortality associated with a 50-ppb increment in a 3-day moving average of SO2 concentrations, including the concurrent day and the preceding 2 days, was 1.078 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.057-1.099] for Seoul and 1.051 (CI, 0.991-1.115) for Ulsan.
This paper contributes to extending research on the weather-ridership relationship around the world especially to refining and extending the nine-term moving average method in this field.
Using a bidirectional control sampling approach, the results from a conditional logistic regression model controlling for weather conditions showed that the nonaccidental mortality associated with a 50-ppb increment over a 3-day moving average of SO(2) concentrations, including the concurrent day and preceding 2 days, was 1.023 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.016-1.084].
"Say a 14-day moving average.
Autoregressive moving average.
