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The mean 3-week lagged moving average rainfall in Cairns was greater than that of Townsville (t=5.13, P<0.000).
The most important splitting factor was the 3-week lagged moving average rainfall, with a threshold value of 27 mm.
In Townsville, only two factors were found to be determinants of weekly autochthonous DF incidence: the 3-week lagged moving average rainfall and seasonality.
In Townsville, the mean weekly incidence of autochthonous DF increased 10-fold when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was ≥27 mm, but it only increased 1.8-fold when rainfall was <27 mm during January to June.
Mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 10-fold (to mean autochthonous DF incidence of 0.4 relative to an overall mean autochthonous DF incidence of 0.04) when the 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was greater or equal to 27 mm.
Thus, the right branch showed that mean weekly autochthonous DF incidence increased 1.8-fold (to mean autochthonous DF incidence of 0.07 relative to an overall mean autochthonous DF incidence of 0.04) when 3-week lagged moving average rainfall was <27 mm during January to June.
Similar(54)
However, when we adjusted for the duration of sunshine per week in addition to temperature (modeled as a moving average for lagged effect), the cumulative effect of rainfall decreased to 2.95 (95% CI: 1.19, 7.31).
To determine the impact of rainfall and temperature, an autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous variables (ARMAX) model was used.
Time-series modeling (auto-regressive integrated moving average [ARIMA] with transfer function [TF]) was carried out considering rainfall, temperature (minimum and maximum), relative humidity, ITNs use fraction, and IRS as potential predictors.
When the temperature was modeled using a polynomial lag type instead of the moving average, the estimated relative risk for the cumulative effect of rainfall increased from 3.61 (95% CI: 1.69, 7.72) to 5.02 (95% CI: 2.13, 11.8).
For example, Gharbi et al. [ 36] fitted a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model of dengue incidence and climate variables including temperature, rainfall and relative humidity in French West Indies for the period 2000 2006.
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