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A moving average lag model was used to evaluate the lag effects of temperature on ED visits.
In our sensitivity analysis, we compared single- and two-pollutant models using moving average lag 2 days for pollutants.
SO2 and CO were not significantly associated with SGDS-K scores at any moving average lag days within 4 weeks.
For example, the 2-day moving average (lag 0 1) was computed as the mean of the same and previous days; the 3-day moving average (lag 0 2) included lag 0, 1, and 2, and so on, up to the 7-day moving average (lag 0 6), which is the average of lag 0 6 days.
Due to the small subset of counties with daily data, we did not, however, include a 3-day moving average lag.
Figure 3 displays the exposure response relationship between the moving average (lag 0 1) of daily mean summer temperature and daily death count for all summers combined and for summers stratified by low or high previous-winter mortality.
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The values p, q and d in the ARIMA (p, d, q) model refer to the numbers of autoregressive lags, moving average lags and differences, respectively.
Although lag 0 1-hr maximum PM 10) showed the strongest association, the most robust associations were for lag 0 and 3-day moving averages (lags 0-2) of 8-hr maximum and 24-hr mean PM 10) in sensitivity analyses testing for thresholds.
This association was stronger with a 2-day moving average of lag 0 + 1 personal NO2 (not shown; −1.75%; 95% CI, −2.83 to −0.673%).
The fourth and final approach undertaken was modelling the effect of mean daily temperature on hospitalisation in a time series generalised additive Poisson regression model using smooth functions of moving average temperature lag strata 0 1, 2 6 and 7 13.
In addition, we evaluated the impacts of using alternative df values for the smooth time trend function, of adjusting for temperature using a 3-day moving average temperature (lag 1 3) to account for any delayed effects of temperature on daily mortality, and of estimating associations with broader particle size categories (PNC0.25 0.3, PNC0.3 0.5, and PNC0.5 1.0).
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